Hay shortage 2026: how to plan, buy and stretch your winter hay.

Published 21 October 2026

What is happening

Harvest Public Media reported on 16 October that farmers are cutting less hay this year. Persistent drought has suppressed yields in major hay states including Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Diesel has risen by more than $2.50 since the start of 2026, according to the EIA figures the report cites. And an invasive pest, the pasture mealybug, is damaging grass in Texas.

Two extension specialists quoted in the report put numbers on it. Danielle Sekula of Texas A&M AgriLife Extension says Coastal Bermuda fields that once gave seven or eight cuttings now give three or four. Brock Ortner of University of Nebraska–Lincoln extension says cow-calf producers entered the year with low hay inventories, and that drought has pushed hay prices up in areas that normally supply hay.

What the report does not give is a national price, any USDA statistics, or any horse-specific figure. So this guide does not quote a price per bale. Ask local sellers and your state extension service what hay is going for near you.

There is one more reason not to wait. Penn State’s analysis of Pennsylvania auction data from 2016 to 2018 found that “good” hay was typically cheapest from June through September and rose in October. That is old, regional data, and the USDA report it used was discontinued in 2019, but it points the same way.

Step 1: count what you actually need

The hay guide has the full method. Penn State’s own worked example is a good template:

• Daily. An 1,100 lb horse at 2 percent of bodyweight eats 22 lb of hay.
• Season. Over a November-to-March season of 150 days, that is 3,300 lb.
• With losses. Add 5 percent for indoor storage waste and 13 percent for feeding small squares on the ground, and the total is 3,915 lb, almost 2 tons, or about 98 bales of 40 lb.

Count your winter by when your pasture stops feeding the horses, not by the calendar. The pasture acreage calculator asks for your grazing season in days.

Step 2: fix waste before you buy

Penn State and Maryland Extension publish the same waste rates by feeding method:

• Small squares: no feeder 13 percent, hayrack 5, basket feeder 3, slat feeder 1.
• Round bales: no feeder 57 percent, circular free-choice feeder 13 to 33, restricted-access feeder 5 to 11.

Penn State says small-square feeders pay for themselves in 9 to 12 months, and round-bale feeders much faster. Here is what that means in hay, using the 3,300 lb the horse actually eats:

• Small squares. Moving from no feeder to a slat feeder cuts Penn State’s example from 3,915 to about 3,500 lb. That is 416 lb, or ten 40 lb bales.
• Round bales. If 57 percent is wasted, only 43 percent is eaten, so feeding on the ground takes about 7,700 lb to get 3,300 into the horse. A restricted-access feeder takes about 3,500 to 3,700 lb. The gap is about two tons per horse.

Those two comparisons are my arithmetic from the published rates, not figures from the sources.

Storage matters too. Penn State puts storage waste anywhere from 2 to 40 percent depending on how hay is kept. Outdoor round bales lose the most, because the bottom and the outer 4 inches absorb moisture, and indoor storage or good cover reduces it.

Step 3: buy by the ton, and match the hay to the horse

A bale count means nothing until you know what each bale weighs. Compare on price per ton: price ÷ bale weight × 2,000. The hay guide works an example.

Penn State found that for good-quality grass hay, large square bales saved an average of $50 per ton compared with small squares, and that small squares were 28 percent more expensive at Pennsylvania auctions. On the 1.96-ton example above, $50 a ton is about $98 per horse. Penn State’s advice is also to buy only what your storage can hold.

You may not need the most expensive hay for every horse. Penn State says mature, lower-nutrient hay can suit obese horses and easy keepers, and is often better for them than restricting a premium hay. It also says the only way to know a hay’s nutritional quality for certain is to analyze a sample from each load.

Step 4: keep a little extra for the cold

Penn State suggests buying a little extra for extremely cold periods. It says acclimated horses with heavy winter coats need more forage when temperatures fall below 18°F, clipped horses need extra at warmer temperatures, and that an extra flake from a small square bale per horse should be plenty.

NDSU puts the threshold higher: 30°F for a heavily coated horse in dry, calm weather, with about 2 lb of extra feed a day for each 10 degrees colder. The sources differ, and the answer depends on the horse. Either way a cold week is cheap. At 10°F, NDSU’s rate is about 4 lb a day extra, so seven days is 28 lb, less than one 40 lb bale.

Step 5: make the grass last

Every day the pasture covers is about 20 lb of hay you do not open for a 1,000 lb horse. Penn State describes rotational grazing as the system that yields the highest returns on available forage, and the rotational grazing guide covers how to run it: start at 6 to 8 inches, move at half height, rest 20 to 30 days.

Protect that grass when the ground is wet. A dry lot keeps horses off saturated pasture so it is still there to graze.

What about hay substitutes

Penn State says forage should form the base of the diet and that horses should have access to it as often as possible. Cubes, pellets and beet pulp are the usual stand-ins, but feed companies and magazines give different substitution ratios, and I could not open an extension source that settles it. So this guide gives none.

That is a conversation for your vet or an equine nutritionist, and it is worth having before the barn is empty rather than after.

What this does not settle

Hay prices vary by region and by hay type, and the report behind this guide is one news story, not a market series. Your own horses’ needs depend on age, work, coat and condition. Treat these figures as a way to find out what you need to ask, not as a feeding plan.